Steve Abonyi
August 17, 2011
DRAFT
Seiya Uyeda
Tokyo, Japan
RE: New Earthquake Warning Detection System
Predicts Earthquakes 4 to 15 minutes in advance of the occurrence
Potential warning periods of 35 minutes or more may be achieved
Dear Dr. Seiya Uyeda
We would like to bring to your attention a new sensor that has been developed that can give
advanced notice of earthquakes. Based on 10 years of research, a sensor developed by Steven
Abonyi in Hungary and in Germany and tested in California, has resulted in a non-seismic
prediction method utilizing electromagnetic semi-conductor sensors that measure the mechanical
compression of tectonic plates prior to the actual earthquake event with a 98% accuracy level of
occurrence. The occasions where the earthquakes were not detected were in situations where the
sensor and the earthquake epicenter were separated by more than one fault line. By installing
several sensors that are placed so that faults lines are not in the path between the sensor and the
probable earthquake locations.
The testing of the detector occurred off and on over 21 day period in July 2011 where (102)
earthquakes were detected in advance of the event. Each earthquake was preceded by a
mechanical compression that we can measure with our sensor.
The prediction method was analyzed against the USGS Earth Quake Hazard Program database. The
new detection data exactly matched the earthquake event timing of the USGS database. The
timing of the warning system varies with the magnitude of the earthquake. The larger the
earthquake the longer the period of advance warning. An Earthquake of magnitude 1 on the
Richter scale has advance warning in the range of 2 to 5 minutes depending on the distance of the
sensor to the Epicenter of the earthquake. The largest earthquake that occurred during the test
periods in California was magnitude 3.5 and the early detection timing was 20 minutes at a
distance of 150 Kilometers between the sensor and the epicenter. Timing of the compression
detection will vary based on the distance between the epicenter and the sensor, the number of
fault lines between the epicenter and the sensor and the Earth’s crust density in the measurement
area. Over large distances the signal becomes weaker.
Large earthquakes will likely give a longer warning period. The magnitude of the earthquake can
be predicted by measuring the magnitude of the anomaly of the electromagnetic field variation
that is detected by the sensor. The distance and location of the epicenter requires at minimum
three sensors preferably with the epicenter being somewhere in the area of the triangle created
by the location of the three sensors. To accomplish the triangulation several sensors will have to
be strategically placed around the known fault lines. The precise location of the epicenter can be
determined by the measurement differential of the sensors picking up the change in the
electromagnetic field. Our understanding is that Japan’s existing software can be adapted to give
real time location and timing alerts.
A preliminary review of the number, length and locations of the fault systems that are in or around
Japan will require approximately 100 to 200 sensors depending on the quality of the warning
system desired by Japan.
Below is a measurement of the standard electromagnet field in Fallbrook California during a quiet
period in the earthquake cycle. Both the amplitude and the frequency are without measureable
change.
Below is a measurement of magnitude 1.5 earthquake on the Richter scale along with the
annotation of the warning mark and the actual earthquake event.
USGS detect, Magnitude 1.5 2011/07/16 18:09:14 36.398N 117.879W 7.2 10 km ( 6 mi) S of Keeler, CA
New detection method time 18:04:08 Warning time: 5 minutes 6 seconds
Below is a measurement of magnitude 1.8 earthquake on the Richter scale along with the
annotation of the warning mark and the actual earthquake event.
USGS detect, Magnitude 1.8 2011/07/16 20:57:56 37.842N 118.229W 9.8 48 km (30 mi) SSW of Tonopah
Junction, NV New method detection time : 20:52:16 Warning time : 5 minutes 40seconds
Below is a measurement of magnitude 3 earthquake on the Richter scale along with the
annotation of the warning mark and the actual earthquake event.
USGS detect, Magnitude 2.4 2011/07/16 19:07:56 36.584N 121.178W 6.2 7 km ( 4 mi) NNW of Pinnacles,
CA New detection method time 19:01:15 Warning time : 06 minutes 41 seconds
Below is a measurement of magnitude 3.5 earthquake on the Richter scale along with the
annotation of the warning mark and the actual earthquake event.
USGS detect Magnitude 3.5 2011/07/16 22:18:30 34.579N 120.961W 0.0 29 km (18 mi) W of Pt.
Arguello,CA New method detection time 22:03:09 Warning time : 15 minutes 21 seconds
We have additional data that we can share with you and your organization on a confidential basis.
While we are not a large organization with a large budget, we would like to cooperate with you
and your organization and country to predict earthquakes in Japan and around the world to save
lives and property.
We look forward to hearing from you and working with you to create a safer future.
Sincerely,
Steve Abonyi